Far East Capital Newsletter
Contemplating interest rates and economic activity, as they relate to markets highs
30 Nov 2019

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Contemplating interest rates and economic activity, as they relate to markets highs

There is something happening to the equities markets which is unusual for Australia, but not necessarily so for the USA. We have seen an incredibly long-lived bull market in the Dow and through the life of it there has been a resilience that has just kept it going, even through periods of doubt. From time to time there have been aggressive sells-downs that threatened to break the trend, but each time it has recovered to hit new highs. It is almost as if it is being responsibly managed to ensure no disasters.
The stronger Australian market is starting to show similar characterises

notwithstanding the concern that our expended period of growth, decades of it in fact, may be under challenge. There doesn’t seem to be any strong fundamentals that justify us testing record highs, but it is still happening. It is out of the ordinary but it might be the new game … until someone changes the rules.

Relating all this back to the stock market as it is pushing towards new highs, we note that these new highs are being made possible because of interest rate policy. Does that explain it all? Certainly we are seeing money moving from low interest bearing accounts into dividend paying shares in the quest for income, as you can get quality dividends about three times higher than cash rates, and there is still plenty of money on the sidelines that could follow. But what happens when this flow slows and the market fully prices in the expectations? What will be the next driver? 

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