West Wits - completing its fund raising for the Qala Shallows

I sat next to a veteran analyst/broker at a company presentation last week. As usual, the discussion progressed to predictions of where the market is headed. However, while that person laboured to impress upon others his intelligence concerning economic observation and analysis and implications for market, I thought ... I have heard all this before and it has never helped me to make money. Markets never do what the experts predict.

I said recently that if you want to make money, then follow the money. I could have just as easily said "the trend is your friend'. That works fine until the trend makes a break. The challenge is to recognise that break sooner rather than later, and to change your strategy.

The reality is that the insight into what moves markets is all tied up in animal behaviour analysis. If a company's share price performance can be compressed to a 24 hour time frame its share price is at fair value equilibrium level for a matter of only 5-10 minutes. The rest of the time it is beholden to human behaviour and expectations rather than fundamental analysis

Many factors impact upon expectations, and therefore the share price from time to time, but that impact is not fixed or constant. It is as flippant as the expectations of thousands of humans that deal in markets. Think of the simultaneous group think of flocks of birds or schools of fish that swerve in unison for unexplained reasons. Economic debate can make you sound intelligent, but can it increase your chances of success in the market or should you just study the dynamics of the market itself? The ability to read the market is more important than making predictions. 

 WeeklyComm13September2025.pages.pdf